Movimientos de línea

Movimientos de línea · 8 de octubre de 2026

Los partidos donde el mercado se movió más, medido contra el precio de apertura de Pinnacle.

Line movement

Line movement · October 8, 2026

The games where the market moved most, measured against Pinnacle's opening price.

#1
🏈 NCAAF
Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals
Ganador: Florida State Seminoles
Abrió2.88 (+188) → Ahora2.51 (+151)

Probabilidad de ganar: 33% → 39% (+5.2)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Florida State Seminoles.

#2
🏈 NCAAF
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies
Ganador: Washington Huskies
Abrió1.76 (-131) → Ahora1.62 (-162)

Probabilidad de ganar: 55% → 60% (+5.0)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Washington Huskies.

#3
🏈 NCAAF
South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
Ganador: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Abrió1.89 (-113) → Ahora1.74 (-135)

Probabilidad de ganar: 51% → 56% (+4.5)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Arkansas State Red Wolves.

#4
🏈 NCAAF
South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners
Hándicap: South Florida Bulls +7
Abrió1.97 (-103) → Ahora1.85 (-118)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 52% (+3.5)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia South Florida Bulls +7.

#5
🏈 NCAAF
Washington State Cougars @ Utah State Aggies
Ganador: Utah State Aggies
Abrió1.55 (-183) → Ahora1.48 (-209)

Probabilidad de ganar: 62% → 65% (+3.0)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Utah State Aggies.

#6
🏈 NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Hándicap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10
Abrió1.93 (-107) → Ahora1.83 (-121)

Probabilidad de ganar: 50% → 53% (+2.9)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.

#7
🏈 NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Ganador: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Abrió5.22 (+422) → Ahora4.55 (+355)

Probabilidad de ganar: 18% → 21% (+2.7)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

#8
🏈 NCAAF
Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals
Hándicap: Florida State Seminoles +4
Abrió1.97 (-103) → Ahora1.89 (-113)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 51% (+2.5)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Florida State Seminoles +4.

#9
🏒 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators
Ganador: Ottawa Senators
Abrió1.72 (-138) → Ahora1.66 (-152)

Probabilidad de ganar: 56% → 59% (+2.4)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Ottawa Senators.

#10
🏈 NCAAF
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies
Hándicap: Washington Huskies -2.5
Abrió1.93 (-108) → Ahora1.84 (-119)

Probabilidad de ganar: 50% → 52% (+2.3)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Washington Huskies -2.5.

#11
🏈 NCAAF
Wyoming Cowboys @ San Jose State Spartans
Hándicap: Wyoming Cowboys +6.5
Abrió1.96 (-104) → Ahora1.89 (-113)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 51% (+2.2)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Wyoming Cowboys +6.5.

#12
🏒 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators
Hándicap: Ottawa Senators -1.5
Abrió2.84 (+184) → Ahora2.68 (+168)

Probabilidad de ganar: 34% → 36% (+2.1)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Ottawa Senators -1.5.

Informes anteriores

Cómo leer esto

Un movimiento de línea es un precio que cambió entre que abrió y ahora. No es una predicción: es lo que el dinero ya hizo.

La referencia es Pinnacle porque es la casa que menos limita a quien gana, así que su precio absorbe antes la opinión de quien apuesta en serio.

El número grande es la diferencia de probabilidad implícita SIN vig entre la apertura y el último precio, en puntos porcentuales. Un +7.6 quiere decir que el mercado le dio a ese lado 7.6 puntos más de probabilidad que al abrir.

Todos los movimientos que salen aquí son a favor del lado mostrado: el informe lista los que más se movieron, no los que más cayeron. Son doce al día, ordenados por tamaño del movimiento.

#1
🏈 College Football
Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals
Winner: Florida State Seminoles
Open2.88 (+188) → Now2.51 (+151)

Win probability: 33% → 39% (+5.2)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Florida State Seminoles.

#2
🏈 College Football
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies
Winner: Washington Huskies
Open1.76 (-131) → Now1.62 (-162)

Win probability: 55% → 60% (+5.0)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Washington Huskies.

#3
🏈 College Football
South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Open1.89 (-113) → Now1.74 (-135)

Win probability: 51% → 56% (+4.5)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Arkansas State Red Wolves.

#4
🏈 College Football
South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners
Spread: South Florida Bulls +7
Open1.97 (-103) → Now1.85 (-118)

Win probability: 49% → 52% (+3.5)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward South Florida Bulls +7.

#5
🏈 College Football
Washington State Cougars @ Utah State Aggies
Winner: Utah State Aggies
Open1.55 (-183) → Now1.48 (-209)

Win probability: 62% → 65% (+3.0)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Utah State Aggies.

#6
🏈 NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10
Open1.93 (-107) → Now1.83 (-121)

Win probability: 50% → 53% (+2.9)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.

#7
🏈 NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Open5.22 (+422) → Now4.55 (+355)

Win probability: 18% → 21% (+2.7)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

#8
🏈 College Football
Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals
Spread: Florida State Seminoles +4
Open1.97 (-103) → Now1.89 (-113)

Win probability: 49% → 51% (+2.5)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Florida State Seminoles +4.

#9
🏒 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators
Winner: Ottawa Senators
Open1.72 (-138) → Now1.66 (-152)

Win probability: 56% → 59% (+2.4)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Ottawa Senators.

#10
🏈 College Football
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies
Spread: Washington Huskies -2.5
Open1.93 (-108) → Now1.84 (-119)

Win probability: 50% → 52% (+2.3)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Washington Huskies -2.5.

#11
🏈 College Football
Wyoming Cowboys @ San Jose State Spartans
Spread: Wyoming Cowboys +6.5
Open1.96 (-104) → Now1.89 (-113)

Win probability: 49% → 51% (+2.2)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Wyoming Cowboys +6.5.

#12
🏒 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators
Spread: Ottawa Senators -1.5
Open2.84 (+184) → Now2.68 (+168)

Win probability: 34% → 36% (+2.1)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Ottawa Senators -1.5.

Previous reports

How to read this

A line move is a price that changed between opening and now. It isn't a prediction: it's what the money already did.

Pinnacle is the reference because it's the book that limits winners least, so its price absorbs sharp opinion first.

The big number is the difference in NO-VIG implied probability between the open and the latest price, in percentage points. A +7.6 means the market gave that side 7.6 points more probability than at open.

Every move listed here favours the side shown: the report lists the biggest moves, not the biggest drops. Twelve a day, ranked by size of the move.