Movimientos de línea

Movimientos de línea · 25 de septiembre de 2026

Los partidos donde el mercado se movió más, medido contra el precio de apertura de Pinnacle.

Line movement

Line movement · September 25, 2026

The games where the market moved most, measured against Pinnacle's opening price.

#1
🏈 NCAAF
Kennesaw State Owls @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
Ganador: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Abrió1.51 (-198) → Ahora1.41 (-241)

Probabilidad de ganar: 64% → 68% (+4.3)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Arkansas State Red Wolves.

#2
🏈 NCAAF
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Wyoming Cowboys
Ganador: Wyoming Cowboys
Abrió2.35 (+135) → Ahora2.14 (+114)

Probabilidad de ganar: 41% → 45% (+4.3)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Wyoming Cowboys.

#3
🏈 NCAAF
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears
Ganador: Clemson Tigers
Abrió2.00 (+100) → Ahora1.86 (-116)

Probabilidad de ganar: 48% → 52% (+3.9)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Clemson Tigers.

#4
🏈 NCAAF
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines
Ganador: Michigan Wolverines
Abrió1.52 (-191) → Ahora1.45 (-221)

Probabilidad de ganar: 63% → 66% (+3.4)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Michigan Wolverines.

#5
🏈 NCAAF
UNLV Rebels @ Akron Zips
Total: Más de 51.5
Abrió1.98 (-102) → Ahora1.86 (-116)

Probabilidad de ganar: 48% → 52% (+3.2)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Más de 51.5.

#6
🏈 NCAAF
UMass Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets
Ganador: Sacramento State Hornets
Abrió2.87 (+187) → Ahora2.64 (+164)

Probabilidad de ganar: 33% → 37% (+3.1)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Sacramento State Hornets.

#7
🏈 NCAAF
UMass Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets
Hándicap: UMass Minutemen -4
Abrió2.00 (+100) → Ahora1.89 (-113)

Probabilidad de ganar: 48% → 51% (+3.1)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia UMass Minutemen -4.

#8
🏈 NCAAF
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears
Hándicap: Clemson Tigers +1
Abrió1.96 (-104) → Ahora1.85 (-117)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 52% (+3.0)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Clemson Tigers +1.

#9
🏈 NCAAF
Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers
Ganador: Texas Longhorns
Abrió1.55 (-182) → Ahora1.49 (-204)

Probabilidad de ganar: 62% → 65% (+2.8)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Texas Longhorns.

#10
🏈 NCAAF
Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans
Ganador: Oregon Ducks
Abrió1.71 (-141) → Ahora1.63 (-158)

Probabilidad de ganar: 56% → 59% (+2.8)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Oregon Ducks.

#11
🏈 NCAAF
Florida Atlantic Owls @ UL Monroe Warhawks
Hándicap: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5
Abrió1.96 (-104) → Ahora1.86 (-116)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 52% (+2.8)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5.

#12
🏈 NCAAF
Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers
Hándicap: Texas Longhorns -4
Abrió1.98 (-102) → Ahora1.89 (-113)

Probabilidad de ganar: 49% → 51% (+2.7)

El momio bajó y la probabilidad implícita subió: el mercado se inclina hacia Texas Longhorns -4.

Informes anteriores

Cómo leer esto

Un movimiento de línea es un precio que cambió entre que abrió y ahora. No es una predicción: es lo que el dinero ya hizo.

La referencia es Pinnacle porque es la casa que menos limita a quien gana, así que su precio absorbe antes la opinión de quien apuesta en serio.

El número grande es la diferencia de probabilidad implícita SIN vig entre la apertura y el último precio, en puntos porcentuales. Un +7.6 quiere decir que el mercado le dio a ese lado 7.6 puntos más de probabilidad que al abrir.

Todos los movimientos que salen aquí son a favor del lado mostrado: el informe lista los que más se movieron, no los que más cayeron. Son doce al día, ordenados por tamaño del movimiento.

#1
🏈 College Football
Kennesaw State Owls @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Open1.51 (-198) → Now1.41 (-241)

Win probability: 64% → 68% (+4.3)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Arkansas State Red Wolves.

#2
🏈 College Football
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Wyoming Cowboys
Winner: Wyoming Cowboys
Open2.35 (+135) → Now2.14 (+114)

Win probability: 41% → 45% (+4.3)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Wyoming Cowboys.

#3
🏈 College Football
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears
Winner: Clemson Tigers
Open2.00 (+100) → Now1.86 (-116)

Win probability: 48% → 52% (+3.9)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Clemson Tigers.

#4
🏈 College Football
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines
Winner: Michigan Wolverines
Open1.52 (-191) → Now1.45 (-221)

Win probability: 63% → 66% (+3.4)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Michigan Wolverines.

#5
🏈 College Football
UNLV Rebels @ Akron Zips
Total: Over 51.5
Open1.98 (-102) → Now1.86 (-116)

Win probability: 48% → 52% (+3.2)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Over 51.5.

#6
🏈 College Football
UMass Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets
Winner: Sacramento State Hornets
Open2.87 (+187) → Now2.64 (+164)

Win probability: 33% → 37% (+3.1)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Sacramento State Hornets.

#7
🏈 College Football
UMass Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets
Spread: UMass Minutemen -4
Open2.00 (+100) → Now1.89 (-113)

Win probability: 48% → 51% (+3.1)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward UMass Minutemen -4.

#8
🏈 College Football
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears
Spread: Clemson Tigers +1
Open1.96 (-104) → Now1.85 (-117)

Win probability: 49% → 52% (+3.0)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Clemson Tigers +1.

#9
🏈 College Football
Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers
Winner: Texas Longhorns
Open1.55 (-182) → Now1.49 (-204)

Win probability: 62% → 65% (+2.8)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Texas Longhorns.

#10
🏈 College Football
Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans
Winner: Oregon Ducks
Open1.71 (-141) → Now1.63 (-158)

Win probability: 56% → 59% (+2.8)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Oregon Ducks.

#11
🏈 College Football
Florida Atlantic Owls @ UL Monroe Warhawks
Spread: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5
Open1.96 (-104) → Now1.86 (-116)

Win probability: 49% → 52% (+2.8)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5.

#12
🏈 College Football
Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers
Spread: Texas Longhorns -4
Open1.98 (-102) → Now1.89 (-113)

Win probability: 49% → 51% (+2.7)

The odds shortened and the implied probability rose: the market is leaning toward Texas Longhorns -4.

Previous reports

How to read this

A line move is a price that changed between opening and now. It isn't a prediction: it's what the money already did.

Pinnacle is the reference because it's the book that limits winners least, so its price absorbs sharp opinion first.

The big number is the difference in NO-VIG implied probability between the open and the latest price, in percentage points. A +7.6 means the market gave that side 7.6 points more probability than at open.

Every move listed here favours the side shown: the report lists the biggest moves, not the biggest drops. Twelve a day, ranked by size of the move.