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Modelo de Valor
@modelo_valor
TipsterLab model

Value picks bot. Dixon-Coles model over 3 seasons, fair odds via Shin devig. Since 2026-09-02 selection runs over a 48-hour window; before that date it ran over same-day games, so earlier picks came from a pool about three times smaller. The two stretches are different samples and all of them are published, with nothing deleted. Since Sep 16, 2026 every pick is 10 units.

Account operated by TipsterLab. Picks are generated by an automated model, not a person. The record is public and verifiable from the moment each pick is posted.

Record

-104.87 u Net units
-15.68% ± 26.63% ROI · 90% margin 90% interval: -42.31% to +10.96%

93 settled picks

Stats

Record29-64
Settled picks93
Units staked669.00 u
Win rate31.2%
Average odds3.98 (+298)
Average stake7.19 u
Picks at max (10 u)68.8%
Average CLV+0.32%
Streak4L

CLV is measured on 93 of 93 picks: the ones with a recorded closing price.

Picks by odds range

Under 1.50 (−200 or shorter) 0 · 0%
1.50 to 1.99 (−199 to −101) 11 · 12%
2.00 to 2.99 (+100 to +199) 36 · 39%
3.00 to 4.99 (+200 to +399) 25 · 27%
5.00 or more (+400 or longer) 21 · 23%

Free · all-time

Record16-30
Net units+58.03 u
ROI+29.16%

46 settled picks

Premium · all-time

Record13-34
Net units-162.90 u
ROI-34.66%

47 settled picks

Premium picks stay hidden until they settle; then they're shown in full and count in the record like any other.

The record updates as events settle.


Picks

⚽ MLS
Posted Tue, Oct 13 · 12:30 PM
Premium
Subscribe to see it

$349 MXN per month

You’re charged in US dollars at the day’s exchange rate; you’ll see the exact amount before you pay.

Sealed pick · revealed once settled
⚽ MLS
Posted Tue, Oct 13 · 12:30 PM
Premium
Subscribe to see it

$349 MXN per month

You’re charged in US dollars at the day’s exchange rate; you’ll see the exact amount before you pay.

Sealed pick · revealed once settled
⚽ MLS
Posted Tue, Oct 13 · 12:30 PM
Premium
Subscribe to see it

$349 MXN per month

You’re charged in US dollars at the day’s exchange rate; you’ll see the exact amount before you pay.

Sealed pick · revealed once settled
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Tue, Oct 13, 1:00 PM
Posted Mon, Oct 12 · 12:30 PM
Lost
O/U Under 2.5 +120 · 2.20 10 u 2-3-10.00 u
Famalicão vs Alverca
Mon, Oct 12, 1:15 PM
Posted Mon, Oct 12 · 12:30 PM
Lost
O/U Under 2.5 -114 · 1.88 10 u 1-4-10.00 u
Levante vs Sevilla
Mon, Oct 12, 1:00 PM
Posted Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 PM
Lost
1X2 Levante +190 · 2.90 10 u 3-3-10.00 u

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How these numbers are calculated

Every settled pick on the account counts: wins, losses and pushes. Voided picks don't. Each pick is posted with the odds locked on our server and settled against the official result.

Net units: the sum of what was won and lost, in the stake units the tipster declared on each pick. ROI: net units divided by units staked.

ROI margin: we treat each pick as one observation of its result in units. The standard error is the standard deviation of those results times the square root of the number of picks, divided by units staked. The margin is 1.645 standard errors: the 90% interval.

Average odds: the average decimal odds weighted by each pick's stake. For a parlay, the combined odds as posted. CLV: how much better (or worse) the posted odds were than the closing price, the best price across books in our last snapshot before start. Parlays have no CLV.

Sport and window: every figure is for the chosen sport (All, by default). Each pick counts on the day of its game (Monterrey time; a parlay, on the day it was decided): 7, 14, 30 or 90 days means today plus the previous days up to that count, and what settles today counts right away; All-time is everything. Season only appears with a sport chosen and covers the games of that sport's current season. The streak covers the account's whole history in that sport.

Season: NFL and college football from August 1; NBA, NHL and college basketball, August 1 to July 31; European club soccer (including the Champions, Europa and Conference League), July 1 to June 30; Liga MX, by tournament (Apertura July to December, Clausura January to June); every other sport, the calendar year.

Same-game parlays (SGP): their odds are declared by the author and not checked against the market, so they count in settled picks, the record, win rate and streak, and in no performance figure: not units, ROI, margin, average odds, stake or CLV.