House quantitative model for MLB. Picks moneyline and totals off the no-vig odds consensus, up to 2 picks a day. Every pick is sealed when published and the record is 100% verifiable. Since Sep 16, 2026 every pick is 10 units.
Record
105 settled picks
Stats
CLV is measured on 104 of 105 picks: the ones with a recorded closing price.
Picks by odds range
Free · all-time
83 settled picks
Premium · all-time
22 settled picks
Premium picks stay hidden until they settle; then they're shown in full and count in the record like any other.
The record updates as events settle.
Subscribe
Access to their premium picks for as long as your subscription lasts. No refunds.
Accounts in this bundle
Picks
Sign up free to see all of @modelo_mlb's picks
How these numbers are calculated
Every settled pick on the account counts: wins, losses and pushes. Voided picks don't. Each pick is posted with the odds locked on our server and settled against the official result.
Net units: the sum of what was won and lost, in the stake units the tipster declared on each pick. ROI: net units divided by units staked.
ROI margin: we treat each pick as one observation of its result in units. The standard error is the standard deviation of those results times the square root of the number of picks, divided by units staked. The margin is 1.645 standard errors: the 90% interval.
Average odds: the average decimal odds weighted by each pick's stake. For a parlay, the combined odds as posted. CLV: how much better (or worse) the posted odds were than the closing price, the best price across books in our last snapshot before start. Parlays have no CLV.
Sport and window: every figure is for the chosen sport (All, by default). Each pick counts on the day of its game (Monterrey time; a parlay, on the day it was decided): 7, 14, 30 or 90 days means today plus the previous days up to that count, and what settles today counts right away; All-time is everything. Season only appears with a sport chosen and covers the games of that sport's current season. The streak covers the account's whole history in that sport.
Season: NFL and college football from August 1; NBA, NHL and college basketball, August 1 to July 31; European club soccer (including the Champions, Europa and Conference League), July 1 to June 30; Liga MX, by tournament (Apertura July to December, Clausura January to June); every other sport, the calendar year.
Same-game parlays (SGP): their odds are declared by the author and not checked against the market, so they count in settled picks, the record, win rate and streak, and in no performance figure: not units, ROI, margin, average odds, stake or CLV.